#AUDJPY 4 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDJPY 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

Both the AUDJPY and AUDUSD have had 7 swings down from their highs.  In the AUDJPY case, it is 7 swings down from the 76.246 high.  7 swings is corrective so this bounce happening now may be part of an expanded flat.  The AUDJPY needs top stay below 76.246 on this move up to keep the bearish reversal in play. 

AUDJPY 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDJPY 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDJPY 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

The AudJpy may have finally started the turn down for the C wave but still need more evidence to be sure. Breaking what I have as the wave 4 low would be a good start by breaking the latest Higher Low.  

IF price turns bck up and breaks above 76.55 then we would probably have to look at this as a five wave up from 73.768.

AUDJPY 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDJPY 4 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDJPY 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

So, IF price breaks 76.55 we either have a flat and wave (b) is done at 73.768 or a nice looking impulse down that is actually and ABC.  OR a move up from 73.768 that is an ABC but also looks like a nice 5 wave impulse up.  

AUDJPY 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDJPY 4HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDJPY 4HR Elliott Wave Count

Not much has changed here as we wait to see is the pair is going to give us a deeper correction of the move up from the 70.000 area. Would love a correction into 72.00 for a long opportunity.  

AUDJPY 4HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDJPY 4 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDJPY 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

I think the move down from the 76.547 high is a nice 5 wave impulse move down so I am excepting another 5 wave down move as long as that high is in place. 

AUDJPY 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDJPY 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDJPY 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

If you drill down to the 15 mn chart you can see a Leading Diagonal for circle A of the b wave and and what looks to be an Ending Diagonal for circle C of the b wave.  This could be just the first leg of the b wave correction and we see 3 waves back before another shot higher that holds below the 76.55 highs.

A break below 73.768 and I would be looking for the 72.00 - 72.50 area before higher again.

AUDJPY 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDJPY 4HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDJPY 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

Looks like the B wave is under way after the spike down for the excitement last night.  May be looking to short in the 75.50 area on a lower high/lower low sequence.

AUDJPY 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDJPY 4 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDJPY 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

As I mentioned on the 1 HR Count, I am sticking with the Leading Diagonal count.  With the said, I am going to short this B wave bounce on a Lower Low/ Lower High sequence with a target of 73.35 and 72.00.  

The a wave should be nearing an end with the b wave starting soon.  

AUDJPY 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

 

#AUDJPY 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDJPY 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

The AUDJPY created that one more low I thought we might see yesterday so not the B wave up should begin IF the 5th wave does not extend. 

The B wave bounce could give us a nice 300 pip play for the C wave down if thing set up right. 

AUDJPY 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

 

#AUDJPY 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDJPY 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

We could see 1 more low here to complete the A wave down but would not be surprised if the B wave has already started.

AUDJPY 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDJPY 4 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDJPY 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

The Ending Diagonal idea is out and the B wave correction has started.  I will be watching to see if this first leg turns into an impulse, it is looking like ti so far.  Once we have 5 down we can look for the 3 wave correction up for B.

AUDJPY 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDJPY 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDJPY 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

The Ending Diagonal is still in play here and that is the count I would love to see play out here for the shorting opportunity.  The short would be playing out during a B wave correction but I think the R/R would be good. 

A continued move lower and break of the 74.86 level gives us a higher risk short and one I may not take. 

AUDJPY 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDJPY 1 HR #ElliottWave Update

AUDJPY 1 HR Elliott Wave Update

If we overlap wave (1) here we can go with the Ending Diagonal.  The main thing here is the 74.86 low.

AUDJPY 1 HR Elliott Wave Update

#AUDJPY 4 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDJPY 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

I think the main points were talked about on the Daily chart I just posted so I won't rehash that here.

I think a break of 74.86 would be an indication this leg is finished and the B wave is underway.

AUDJPY 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDJPY 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDJPY 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

The AUDJPY continues to push higher here but I am not giving up on that B wave just yet. Each new high is being met with divergence on the RSI so its either going to turn back down soon or we have nested 1-2's and it will continue higher in a 3rd wave.  I am going with the first option. 

AUDJPY 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDJPY 4 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDJPY 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

If this is in fact a Leading Diagonal up from the 69.963 lows then there should be a deeper pullback and price should remain below 75.986.  Above that then MAYBE the Leading Diagonal is not complete but all 5 legs have a nice 3 way move. The other option is the WXY but even in that case I would expect another leg lower toward the 73.826.

AUDJPY 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDJPY 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDJPY 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

As I mentioned yesterday, the circle B wave correction up may not be finished yet.  It looks like it is trying to create another small high before the circle C down starts.

Still looking lower while price is under 75.986.

AUDJPY 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDJPY 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDJPY 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

The circle B may not be finished yet and could make another leg up before circle C down starts.  For now I am going with Circle C has started.

Looking lower as price remains under 75.986.

AUDJPY 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDJPY 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDJPY 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

Looking for a 3 wave correction up for B wave before the C wave down.  Price SHOULD remain below 75.986 during this correction but does not have to since the A wave was 3 waves. 

Still looking for a deeper correction before moving hire.  The good unemployment number have not sent the Aussie screaming hire so no reason we could not see that deeper correction in all Aussie pairs. 

AUDJPY 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

4 HR #ElliottWave Count on Aussie Pairs

4 HR #ElliottWave Count on Aussie Pairs

I want to take a look at all the Aussie pairs in one post here and do some comparison.  It is Obvious that the Aussie pairs are in a strong downtrend and until some critical swing highs are broken we need to continue looking lower after some corrections.  

Most of the Aussie pairs have at least tested their Sept Swing highs with the exception of the AUDNZD with that pair not even close. 

AUDCAD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

The AUDCAD has tested its September highs of .9150 but could not break above just yet.  It may happen on the next corrective move higher but the real test will be the .9250 swing highs.

I do not see anything impulsive from the .8836 lows as of yet so I am excepting another low at some point.  Just because we do not have an impulse up yet does not mean we can not continue to correct higher. 

AUDCAD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

AUDCHF 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

The AUDCHF did break the Sept Highs but was about 55 pips from breaking the latest Swing High.  

An Alternate count here is the this correction was over at the .6888 high and we are stating an impulse down.  I am going with the idea of one more corrective move higher to stay inline with the other Aussie pairs.

AUDCHF 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

 AUDJPY 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

The AUDJPY did break its Sept swing high and came just a few point shy of breaking its latest swing high.  In the process created what looks to be a Leading Diagonal  a wave up.  The Alt. count I have mentioned in the past is the WXY. Either way we currently have 5 waves up and still need a correction and one more high to complete the corrective move.  5 Waves is an Impulse move, 7 Waves is a corrective move.  

Because we have 5 waves up on the AUDJPY I am using that to guide my count on the other Aussie Pairs until we make another high or break below 69.96.

AUDJPY 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

AUDNZD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

The AUDNZD has been the weakest of the Aussie pairs as it did not even come close to its Sept highs or any other swing highs.  I have relabeled this pair with the thought of a wave 4 consolidation going on now as the other correct higher.  We will see how this works out. 

AUDNZD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

AUDUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

The AUDUSD has tested and broken above the Sept swing high twice during this corrective move.  I think the real test will be the .7083 swing highs that the pair should be testing on the next corrective move higher, I not think they will break but will get tested.  

Again, because I am expecting another swing higher in the AUDJPY I am going to continue to look higher on the AUDUSD. 

AUDUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

The bottom line is I am expecting another corrective swing higher on all the Aussie pairs based on the 5 wave move up in the AUDJPY.  All pairs should hold above there respective swing lows until this happens.  

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