#EURUSD 4 HR #ElliottWave Count

EURUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

If you are going with the Leading Diagonal A wave I posted on Twitter the other day then you could say that the circle iv wave is complete with the 5 waves down from 1.11735.  It is the exact same pattern as the circle ii wave down.  I have them highlighted in a grey box so you can see the similarities.

EURUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

#EURUSD 4 HR #Elliottwave update

EURUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Update

There is a strong move down at the moment and it looks like th e1.1066 level could break.  If the low does break I would consider this leg of the correction complete and look for a 3 wave X down that holds above 1.08792.  

EURUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Update

#EURUSD 4 HR #ElliottWave Count

EURUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

The Fib extensions are only showing a 1.1280 target up for this leg but we will see what happens.  

EURUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

#EURUSD 4 HR #ElliottWave Count

EURUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

Not much changing here yet today.  The big picture here is that I expect the pair to continue a corrective move higher as long as 1.08792 holds.  How that corrective move plays out exactly is hard to say and predict at this point.  Continue to look for higher highs/higher lows.  If the 1.10663 low gives, it does not mean the corrective move higher is complete but a different Elliott Wave pattern is playing out.  If that low gives I might consider this LEG of the correction complete and look for a 3 wave move down for an X wave before higher again.  AGAIN, the main level is 1.08792.

EURUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

 

#EURUSD 4 HR #ElliottWave Count

EURUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

I mention the other day that I thought the EURSUD needed another leg higher to complete this correction.  In this count I am showing that the pair needs the C wave up to complete the pattern.  Price must remain above 1.10663 to remain valid.

#EURUSD 4 HR #ElliottWave Count

EURUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

I don't actually have any wave labels on this chart because I wanted to look at this from a price action side right now.

In the chart below, price made a lower low in Oct of 1.0872 and bounced from there running up to 1.11795.  These high of 1.11795 broke above the last two corrective swing highs (Lower Highs) showing strength and indicating more up is possible.

From the 1.11795 high price pulled back to the 1.09812 low before bouncing again.  It bounced from the 1.09812 low up to 1.11997.  This price action started the Higher High and Higher Low sequence with 1.09812 now becoming an important low if price is going to continue higher.

Price then pulled back to the 1.10663 low and moved higher again up to 1.12404 creating another Higher High and Higher Low at 1.10663.  Now, the 1.10663 low is what I consider an minute Swing Low with the 1.09812 a Minor Swing Low and 1.0872 a major Swing Low.

Obviously the Minute swing low is important in the Higher High/Higher Low Price Action Game but not as important as the Minor or Major.

Bottom line is that is the EURUSD is going to continue to move higher in a Higher High/Higher Low sequence then the 1.10663 low SHOULD hold as price moves higher back above 1.12404.

The other important thing to keep in mind is that corrections happen in 3-7 and 11 swings and I am showing that we only have 6 swings with this recent pullback.  A 7th swing would need to break above 1.12404 to complete the corrective pattern.

P.S. - When I count swings I count the Higher Highs/Higher Low only.  Opposite in the down trend.

EURUSD 4 HR Price Action Chart

#EURUSD 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

The EURUSD is a few pips from the two equal legs here and it is decision time is this the b wave of the X wave?  If it is the b wave then it needs to hold above 1.0663 so the risk is minimal here for a long and try for the C wave higher.

If it is the X wave then this abc could be the A or W leg and we see 3 legs higher for a B or X wave before lower again.

For me, the best thing to do is wait for the Higher High/Higher Low sequence to start for trying a long.

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

 

#EURUSD 1 HR #Elliottwave Count

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

Not much has changed here since yesterday.  The EURUSD is lower but it is still a coin toss, is it an abc for b of Y or will it continue lower for X.

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#EURUSD 4 HR #ElliottWave Count

EURUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

Keep on eye on the 2 equal waves down here at 1.10902.  The pair could bounce here for the other C wave up of the Y wave.

This correction is getting messy, overall I do expect it to continue moving higher in an overlapping corrective manner.  This type of correction makes it hard to trade.

EURUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

#EURUSD 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

Looks like the circle B up was complete and the pair is working on the circle c down, price will need to stay below 1.12058 on any deeper corrections.

I believe we may see some consolidation followed by small moves lower for the 4th and 5th waves before a deeper correction.

Until the 1.1065 low breaks the blue b wave alternate is still an option here.  This move down now could be a small c wave for the blue b.

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#EURUSD 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

The B wave could be complete here and the pair may start moving lower for C of X.  The alternate count is that b of Y is complete and the pair creates that one more high I mentioned last week.

Below 1.11249 and the pair is going to complete the X wave.  Above 1.11238 and the pair is going for the C of Y and we have the X down to go yet.

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#EURUSD 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

The 1.11861 has given way so this is a good indication that this leg up is complete and the X wave is underway.  There is always the possibility that we see this turn into a complex WXY rather than this (a)-(b)-(c).  If it is the complex WXY (in Blue) then there would still be one more high after the correction to complete the larger degree W (in Black).  

If I were going to play the X wave lower I would wait for the correction of this recent move down then a break of these lows as I am showing in the top right corner of the chart.  I think this gives you better R/R and you are at least starting the Lower Low and Lower High Sequence.  

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#EURUSD 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

Below 1.1186 and I would say the leg up from the 1.1064 area is complete and a deeper correction is on the way.  

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#EURUSD 4 HR #ElliottWave Count

EURUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

I am thinking we could see a correction starting near the 1.1280 - 1.12850 area.  The correction should be a 3 wave move for the X wave before higher again.  1.1 looks like a good target for the X wave correction.

EURUSD 4 HR #lliott Wave Count

#EURUSD 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

Looks like 1, possibly 2 smaller lows before the EURUSD could start heading higher in the C wave above 1.12.

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

  

#EURUSD 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

Looking lower toward 1.1050, this correction could be ending early next week and the pair starts heading higher again. 

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#EURUSD 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

The EURUSD is hung up on that 1.11097 again but I do believe it will give way after another small bounce.

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#EURUSD 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

The EURUSD held above the 1.11097 support mention yesterday to end the A wave.  The pair looks to be working on the B wave up and should hold 1.11752 during the correction. 

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#EURUSD 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

I would not be surprised to see a 3 wave correction from here followed by another leg lower.  Price is right on a small support/resistance line. We may have to change the count to a WXY but still looking lower toward the 1.0872 - 1.0647 before higher.

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#EURUSD 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

The Euro picked up a little strength during the London Session to extend the B wave a little higher.  It looks to be done and C wave underway once again.  I will be looking for 1.1080 or so before higher. 

Also the USDCHF has made what could be the final low in the Ending Diagonal so a move up should be underway soon. 

EURUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count