#AUDUSD 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

The AUDUSD continues to make lower lows and lower highs with the last lower high at .68755.  I am still thinking lower toward .6750 as .69343 holds.

AUDUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDUSD 4 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

As I mentioned in the AUDJPY update the 7 swings lower could mean some other type of correction is going on here.  The circle b wav up could be turning into an expanded flat or there could be an expanded flat in the move down from .69343 highs.

.69343 will be important in this current bounce.  IF the pair turns lower again while holding the .69343 high then we could go with the expanded flat in this current move down.  Above .69343 then the circle b is probably the expanded flat.

Hope all that made sense.

AUDUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDUSD 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

A break of .68839 could be the start of the C wave down, the next important level would be .6850.  The pair will need to hold below .6911 for this to be valid.

AUDUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDUSD 4 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

I don't actual have any wave counts on here as I am just showing some support and resistance areas and the overall structure I am looking at right now.

From the .6670 low you can see a clear 3 wave corrective move higher to .7032.  From that .7032 high the pair had a nice move lower but I do not believe it is a completed structure and needs another leg lower before it is complete.  That other leg lower may have started today at .69336.  With that said I would NOT be surprised to see this current move lower hold above .6850  and the pair make a slight new high above todays high before the before moving back lower to the .6754 area.

A break of the RSI trendline will tell us that this leg up from the .6850 area is complete.  What it will NOT tell us is if there will be another leg higher before breaking down to the .6753 area.

#AUDUSD 4 HR #ElliotWave Count

AUDUSD 4 HR Elliot Wave Count

Looks like the pair is working on (b) of the circle b correction.  Waiting for the larger degree B wave correction to complete for a possible long trade.  

AUDUSD 4 HR Elliot Wave Count

#AUDUSD 4 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

I believe the pair is working on the circle b wave up here with a near completion.  I am expecting the pair to remain in the .7032 to .66709 area for a bit while this B wave plays out.  

AUDUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDUSD 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

As I mentioned yesterday the AUDUSD would probably consolidate in a 4th wave folowed by a 5th wave lower.  It looks like the 4th wave may be nearing the end and we should see another move lower before the B wave correction up begins.  

AUDUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDUSD 4 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

The AUDUSD has not started the B wave up yet and we may see a 4th and 5th yet before it does.

AUDUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDUSD 4 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

Same situation as the AUDJPY.  Looking a little lower for the a wave followed by a B wave bounce to maybe retest the broken trendline and the 61.8% area.

AUDUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDUSD 4 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

It is very possible that this correction for a 4th wave is over at the wave A highs and the pair continues lower below .66709.  I am going with the B wave because of the Leading Diagonal on the AUDJPY as I believe we could still see new corrective highs in both pairs.

AUDUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDUSD 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

I have removed the possible impulse count. It is still a valid count but I do not think it is going to happen.  Looking for the ABC correction before higher again.

AUDUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDUSD 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

Still room here for the impulse wave up.  I am beginning to lean toward the fact the circle A up is done and this is the first leg of the B wave down.  

AUDUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

  

#AUDUSD 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

The Circle A or wave iii could easily continue to sub dived higher.  For the impulse to remain valid any pullback must remain above .6939.

AUDUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDUSD 4 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

As I mentioned in the Daily Update, I would not be surprised to see this pair continue higher in a serious of 4th and 5th waves.  Price will need to stay above .6939 on any pullbacks if that is going to happen.  

If price does move down to .6939 from near currect price then I would look at it as the B wave of Y.  

AUDUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDUSD 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

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AUDUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

As with the AUDJPY, and other Aussie pairs, the AUDUSD continues to push higher and testing the highs.  It is very possible that the x wave was complete at .68388 and this move up is the a leg of Y.  If you are thinking of longs here I would wait to see what the pullback does and then play the breakout higher, just my opinion.

AUDUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDUSD 4 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

As mentioned in the 1 HR update this morning, I am expecting the AUDUSD to reverse here soon and make a 5 wave impulse C down or another 3 waves down for circle y of x to .6800 area before higher again toward .7000

Above .6939 at this point could mean our x wave is complete at .6839 and this leg up now is wave a of the y up.

AUDUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDUSD 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

Looks like another small high for this x wave and we should see this reverse lower.  A break of the RSI trendline should indicate this up move correction is complete.

AUDUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDUSD 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

I am still thinking the pair will test .6900 before reversing for y of x.

Looking lower as .6939 holds.

AUDUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

#AUDUSD 1 HR #ElliottWave Count

AUDUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

.6900 would be the perfect place to end this X wave and reverse for the Y wave down.

AUDUSD 1 HR Elliott Wave Count

4 HR #ElliottWave Count on Aussie Pairs

4 HR #ElliottWave Count on Aussie Pairs

I want to take a look at all the Aussie pairs in one post here and do some comparison.  It is Obvious that the Aussie pairs are in a strong downtrend and until some critical swing highs are broken we need to continue looking lower after some corrections.  

Most of the Aussie pairs have at least tested their Sept Swing highs with the exception of the AUDNZD with that pair not even close. 

AUDCAD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

The AUDCAD has tested its September highs of .9150 but could not break above just yet.  It may happen on the next corrective move higher but the real test will be the .9250 swing highs.

I do not see anything impulsive from the .8836 lows as of yet so I am excepting another low at some point.  Just because we do not have an impulse up yet does not mean we can not continue to correct higher. 

AUDCAD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

AUDCHF 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

The AUDCHF did break the Sept Highs but was about 55 pips from breaking the latest Swing High.  

An Alternate count here is the this correction was over at the .6888 high and we are stating an impulse down.  I am going with the idea of one more corrective move higher to stay inline with the other Aussie pairs.

AUDCHF 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

 AUDJPY 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

The AUDJPY did break its Sept swing high and came just a few point shy of breaking its latest swing high.  In the process created what looks to be a Leading Diagonal  a wave up.  The Alt. count I have mentioned in the past is the WXY. Either way we currently have 5 waves up and still need a correction and one more high to complete the corrective move.  5 Waves is an Impulse move, 7 Waves is a corrective move.  

Because we have 5 waves up on the AUDJPY I am using that to guide my count on the other Aussie Pairs until we make another high or break below 69.96.

AUDJPY 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

AUDNZD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

The AUDNZD has been the weakest of the Aussie pairs as it did not even come close to its Sept highs or any other swing highs.  I have relabeled this pair with the thought of a wave 4 consolidation going on now as the other correct higher.  We will see how this works out. 

AUDNZD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

AUDUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

The AUDUSD has tested and broken above the Sept swing high twice during this corrective move.  I think the real test will be the .7083 swing highs that the pair should be testing on the next corrective move higher, I not think they will break but will get tested.  

Again, because I am expecting another swing higher in the AUDJPY I am going to continue to look higher on the AUDUSD. 

AUDUSD 4 HR Elliott Wave Count

The bottom line is I am expecting another corrective swing higher on all the Aussie pairs based on the 5 wave move up in the AUDJPY.  All pairs should hold above there respective swing lows until this happens.  

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