Tuesday, June 28, 2016

#GBPUSD Weekly and 4 HR

#GBPUSD Weekly and 4 HR


Although my "Y" wave triangle I post on the 4 hr chart last week did not pan out, the end result was the same.  I was looking for a final low for the ending diagonal C wave for B before a larger bounce.  I am watching smaller time frames here to see if this bounce turns impulsive from the lows.  A long against the 1.3120 lows would be sweet risk/reward with a target of 1.8848.  (Not trading advise, just saying.)    

Note the triple divergence on the weekly chart.  If this holds we could see a spike higher over the coming weeks.  

4 HR


Weekly 



Friday, June 17, 2016

#GBPJPY 4 HR Chart Update

IMPORTANT!!! Please see note above.

#GBPJPY 4 HR Chart Update


#GBPJPY should have ended or near the end of the fourth wave and should see some down movement soon heading toward the 140.00 mark.  

The stop loss and wave invalidation are at the low of wave one at 152.962.  From current levels the stop loss would be 400 pips with 875 pips to the target so a little better then 2 to 1 risk/reward.  

A 400 pip stop is to rich for my blood so I will wait to see if I cam get something after this wave v down starts.  

 

#GBPUSD 4 HR chart Update and Trade Ideas

IMPORTANT!!! Please see note above.

#GBPUSD 4 HR chart Update and Trade Ideas 


Well, I am using the old (Y) wave triangle trick again and it looks nice.  I believe wave 4 of the Ending Diagonal that I am showing on the weekly chart ended at 1.46648.  Since then we have 5 waves down and an ABC Flat that is stalling around the previous fourth wave and 38.2 fib.   

I think shorts against 1.46645 would be safe but a better play would be to wait for the 1.40127 low to break and short against the high of wave (ii).  IF the retracement were to each the 61.8 fib then a short against the 1.4665 high would be a nice risk/reward with the target of 138.00 to 136.00.

AGAIN, please keep in mind these are just my thoughts and not trading advise.  

Thanks 

Bob

P.S. - After seeing this Y wave triangle I need to talk another look at AUDUSd and EURUSD.


#EURUSD 4 HR Chart Update

IMPORTANT!!! Please see note above.


#EURUSD 4 HR Chart Update


As mention in the daily chart update, I think the possibility of a triangle playing out should be added to the options.  I have both the B wave up to 1.500 and the triangle show on the 4 HR Chart.

One reason for the triangle playing out is the wave up from 1.11310 low started out looking like a nice impulse and now it is just going sideways. 

I will not be touching this pair unless one of three things happen.

1. The pair bounces up in the "B" wave to the 1.1500 and then I will short against 1.16166.

2. The pair breaks 1.11310 and I know we are finally headed for  the 1.0600 area.  Even with the break from current levels I would still be worried. 

3.  The pair completes the triangle and I cane get a good short against the C wave high.  

Until then I m staying away. 



#EURUSD Daily Chart Update

IMPORTANT!!! Please see note above.

#EURUSD Daily Chart Update

The #EURUSD looked like it was ready to bust through that 1.10979 level and take out the idea of a "C" wave up to complete wave (b).  Almost as fast as it dropped it jumped right back up and we are looking at "C" up to complete the (b) wave again.  

Another option that just popped in my head as I was writing this is a b wave triangle I am showing on the 4 hr chart.  Since this is a three wave move down for D of a larger triangle it is certainly possible.   

I have no intentions of trading this but if you are long your best option for a stop is 1.11310.  If you are short then it would be 1.14156 or even higher at 1.16166.

Staying away...