Saturday, July 16, 2016

#EURUSD Elliott Wave Count 07/16/16

AUDUSD Elliott Wave Count 07/16/16

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

#AUDUSD Update and Trade Idea

#AUDUSD Update and Trade Idea *Closed 3 Lots for 110.5 pips*

Since the Brexit low on June 24th the #AUDUSD has made a series of higher highs and higher lows and it is the only pair that I follow that has actually broken the Brexit highs. Over the last few weeks these highs and lows have created a nice rising wedge pattern.  I wont call this an Ending Diagonal because there is no divergence on the RSI.  Over the next few days I do hope to see plenty of divergence as the pair continues higher within this rising wedge.

A break of .75221 would break the series of higher lows and could be the start of the move to .6000.  I currently have a sell order in at .75788 with a stop at .7659.  I do not expect this to be triggered until the pair makes new highs making .75778 the recent higher low that will needs to be broken.  If it does get hit I am fine with that and will look to ride it to .6000.  

With a loss on the last #AUDUSD short the balance in the demo account is $1963.08.  I will risk 2% on this trade with an 82 pip stop or $39.26.  The Position Size Calculator says I should take 4.79 lots on this trade so I rounded it up to 5.  The dollar risk will be a littler higher the the $39.26 at $41.00.

If the pair does make a few more small higher high and higher lows then I will be moving the entry order up accordingly,


#EURUSD Update

#EURSUD Update

I posted a different triangle a few days ago looking for an E wave up of the triangle.  That may still play out but a break of 1.11865 would invalidate that triangle and put this one in play.  

I have a feeling the pair is headed for 1.2951 to back fill the Brexit crash before heading lower.  This move up could still be part of the D leg or it could be the E leg of the larger triangle I have been posting on the Daily charts.  Either way it gives us a much better short entry toward the end of the week or early next week.  

I have posted an hourly and daily chart below.


Sunday, July 10, 2016

#AUDSUD Trade Idea * Stopped Out* Update


The #AUDUSD trade was stopped out at .75902 for a 28 pip loss or -$36.92 of the account.  This has been updated on the Trade Ideas page and the account balance is now $1963.08.

I still believe the count in the chart below is correct and will be looking for another short below .7835 with a target in the .6000 area. I will be posting another Trade Idea in the next few hours.


#AUDSUD Trade Idea * Currently Short

Over the last two weeks the #AUDUSD has created what looks like a Leading Diagonal the I believe is complete and the pair is ready for a B wave pullback.  The other option is that it is a Double Zig-Zag for wave two and wave three is about to start.  

I am currently short at .75618 with the target of .7400.  If this is just a B wave pullback then the 61.8% retrace and wave 4 line up perfectly along with a mid point pivot between S1and S2.  

I used the Position Size Calculator to the right to figure out the position size I should be in for a simulated $2000.00 account.  I used 2% risk and a 30 Pip stop loss so my risk is $40.00 on 13 Micro lots.  My Risk/Reward is 5 to 1.

I do not have an order in t .7400 yet because I want to see how this move down progresses and see if this is a wave 3 down before getting out.  

If I am stopped out then I will look for anther opportunity to short the pair.  

Thanks for all the likes, retweets and follows on twitter.