Saturday, July 16, 2016
Wednesday, July 13, 2016
#AUDUSD Update and Trade Idea *Closed 3 Lots for 110.5 pips*
Since the Brexit low on June 24th the #AUDUSD has made a series of higher highs and higher lows and it is the only pair that I follow that has actually broken the Brexit highs. Over the last few weeks these highs and lows have created a nice rising wedge pattern. I wont call this an Ending Diagonal because there is no divergence on the RSI. Over the next few days I do hope to see plenty of divergence as the pair continues higher within this rising wedge.
A break of .75221 would break the series of higher lows and could be the start of the move to .6000. I currently have a sell order in at .75788 with a stop at .7659. I do not expect this to be triggered until the pair makes new highs making .75778 the recent higher low that will needs to be broken. If it does get hit I am fine with that and will look to ride it to .6000.
With a loss on the last #AUDUSD short the balance in the demo account is $1963.08. I will risk 2% on this trade with an 82 pip stop or $39.26. The Position Size Calculator says I should take 4.79 lots on this trade so I rounded it up to 5. The dollar risk will be a littler higher the the $39.26 at $41.00.
If the pair does make a few more small higher high and higher lows then I will be moving the entry order up accordingly,
at 9:33:00 AM
I posted a different triangle a few days ago looking for an E wave up of the triangle. That may still play out but a break of 1.11865 would invalidate that triangle and put this one in play.
I have a feeling the pair is headed for 1.2951 to back fill the Brexit crash before heading lower. This move up could still be part of the D leg or it could be the E leg of the larger triangle I have been posting on the Daily charts. Either way it gives us a much better short entry toward the end of the week or early next week.
I have posted an hourly and daily chart below.
at 7:43:00 AM
Sunday, July 10, 2016
**UPDATE**The #AUDUSD trade was stopped out at .75902 for a 28 pip loss or -$36.92 of the account. This has been updated on the Trade Ideas page and the account balance is now $1963.08.
I still believe the count in the chart below is correct and will be looking for another short below .7835 with a target in the .6000 area. I will be posting another Trade Idea in the next few hours.
#AUDSUD Trade Idea * Currently Short
Over the last two weeks the #AUDUSD has created what looks like a Leading Diagonal the I believe is complete and the pair is ready for a B wave pullback. The other option is that it is a Double Zig-Zag for wave two and wave three is about to start.
I am currently short at .75618 with the target of .7400. If this is just a B wave pullback then the 61.8% retrace and wave 4 line up perfectly along with a mid point pivot between S1and S2.
I used the Position Size Calculator to the right to figure out the position size I should be in for a simulated $2000.00 account. I used 2% risk and a 30 Pip stop loss so my risk is $40.00 on 13 Micro lots. My Risk/Reward is 5 to 1.
I do not have an order in t .7400 yet because I want to see how this move down progresses and see if this is a wave 3 down before getting out.
If I am stopped out then I will look for anther opportunity to short the pair.
Thanks for all the likes, retweets and follows on twitter.
at 3:26:00 PM